(or certainly not entirely, and here's why)
No-one wants to believe that their job can be replaced by a machine, that the value they provide the world can be easily replicated in an easier, cheaper way. It's therefore natural for us developers to knee-jerk defensively with our reptilian brain as if our livlihoods are being threatened.
However, if we move from thinking fast to slow, and look at the question "Will AI replace developers?" with our trademark critical and analytical mindsets, we arrive at the logical conclusion.
No, AI will not replace developers. At least, not in the way that people are suggesting it will, any time soon.
But as developers we should adopt a healthy degree of pragmatism and open mindness when considering this fast moving landscape.
Developers don't just program. They program, yes, but they also solve advanced business problems, design, make trade-offs, and be creative based on always-changing requirements. AI is an excellent tool, but it isn't a creative thinker.
Developers know the business landscape, industry regulations, organizational constraints, and long-term implications of technical decisions. AI lacks this vital information unless spoon-fed with every minor detail - which itself is a human activity.
Software development is a collaborative process. Developers interact with stakeholders, designers, project managers, and fellow developers to come to consensus on goals and deliver successful products. AI cannot replace this human communication and collabration layer, despite agentic attempts at crude facsimiles.
Code isn't written and never looked at again. Code gets evolved over time. Developers work on maintaining, refactoring, and enhancing codebases to address new business requirements and keep pace with changing technology. AI can be helpful but is not capable of independently performing these tasks end-to-end.
The current technology in AI is well known for hallucinations, creating insecure or inefficient code and no one is to be blamed. The function of developers is to check, test, and ensure that the code is quality and secure.
Computer programmers design for people, and people are tricky without empathy - the ability to consider human constraints, frustrations, motivations, and behaviors. Human emotions, environment, and informal cultural norms on software success can never be realised by AI.
AI operates on patterns and numbers, but developers usually need to think laterally - relating seemingly disparate ideas, creating new patterns, or solving problems in a non-traditional way. This kind of thinking is difficult to teach and difficult to automate.
There are several reasons you will find some folks making these claims, based on a number of motivations.
Purposely publishing questionable statements to antagonise and capitalise on split opinion. Written mainly to collect likes, shares, and followers. Sensationalism is so well received on social media, no matter the truth. Sadly, it has become standard procedure. It is the act of posting opinion polarizing statements and opinions deliberately to elicit responses from individuals who hold different opinions.
Some of those making these claims have no history with the nuance of real software development. They consider programming simply "writing code" rather than the highly collaborative, problem-solving activity that it is.
Unfortunately, some executives and influencers with little or no hands-on development experience create wild predictions with insufficient knowledge, thus spreading misinformation and misunderstanding.
Some companies aggressively promote AI replacing developers as a marketing strategy to hype their perceived market value and increase stock prices. The narrative is more shareholder-oriented than true.
Sellers of AI software have a vested interest in overstating how powerful AI is in order to sell more. It's a marketing feature, not a technical fact.
It is not only wrong, but dangerous, to assume that AI will soon fully replace developers. If senior leadership or influential voices within an organization believe this, it can lead to underinvestment in development teams, unrealistic expectations, and bad strategic decisions.
Company leaders who hold this belief either need to be properly schooled in the realities of software development, or, if necessary, be replaced in an effort to keep the company from suffering long-term harm.
In the ideal world, you would have the decision makers deciding on the strategic use of technology that are nearest to both technology and strategy.
While AI will not fully replace software developers, it is undeniable that AI has become an incredibly powerful assistant in the software development process. Tools like AI-powered code suggestions, code generation, documentation helpers, testing aids, and automated refactoring have significantly improved developer productivity.
AI helps reduce mundane and repetitive tasks, allowing developers to focus more on high-value, creative, and complex problem-solving work. It can act as a second pair of eyes, spotting issues faster, generating boilerplate code, and providing useful suggestions during development.
Furthermore, AI can be a great educational tool, assisting new developers in learning programming concepts, generating examples, and improving coding best practices. For experienced developers, it can help accelerate prototyping and reduce time spent on less critical tasks.
In short, AI has made developers more efficient and effective - not obsolete. Those who learn to collaborate with AI as a tool will likely outperform those who ignore it or fear it.
It is true, AI is making life easier for developers, at least to some extent, though not nearly as much as online media would have you believe. Yes, AI can boost productivity, automate tedium, and even offer code suggestions, but it can't replace the amount of knowledge, experience, and problem-solving that goes into software development.
We have already witnessed such knee-jerk companies believing these AI hype arguments, slashing their development teams, and are already regretting these cuts. Short-term savings on wrong assumptions usually result in long-term disappointments.
Be careful whose opinions you listen to. It is far too easly for anyone to use social media as a platform to voice uneducated opinions. Just because someone calls themselves a tech thought leader, futurist or written a book, do not assume they are knowledgeable about the practicalities of technology in reality - some are merely hacks attempting to predict, guess or latch onto emerging trends.
Next time you read sensational or questionable statements about AI, consider the motivations of the author. Personally, I generally favour the opinions of those that demonstrate a working knowledge of AI (have created AI soltuions) over non-technical "thought leaders". Anyone can create a report or PDF about AI.
Want to prove you're an expert in AI and can devise and deliver value adding propositions? Show, don't tell.
Don't be seduced by the black-and-white A or B choices that offer you polarised views only. The world is nuanced. You need to be pragmatic, not dogmatic, in your view and decision regarding AI and software development.
Try not to believe everything you read unless you undertake your own research and due diligence (There's a great book called Factfulness on this topic).
In the end, critical thinking is, and always will be, your best asset.